Super Bowl XLII

Time for my annual Super Bowl preview and it will again come with the disclaimer that this is probably be very lengthy.

This year, we have the 18-0 Patriots vs the 10-6 Giants. Not quite the matchup that everyone had predicted, well, everyone predicted the Patriots would be the team representing the AFC, but everyone excepted Eli to through 4 interceptions and be out in the first round. But throughout the playoffs, an improved passing game and improved run defense have allowed the Giants to keep winning.

And now, its time for the Super Bowl. The stakes are a little higher now. Here's what's surprising to me. On the SportsNation poll on ESPN this week, 39% of sports fans think the Giants are going to win. Really? On what basis? We really are a nation of haters aren't we? So many people don't want to see the Patriots go undefeated that they can't separate themselves from it enough to think rationally about it. They are 18-0, have you seen them play? What makes anyone think that a 10-6 NFC team has a chance against them? The Giants could even beat them at home in cold weather. They are going to beat them at a neutral site in warm weather? Does everyone forget that in warm weather, the Pats were beating people by 40 points in the first half? Oh well, I guess 50% of Americans can't find Florida on a map, why would we think they could predict the winner of the Super Bowl.

The Prediction Factor
Is Plaxico Burress a complete idiot? Predicting to the media that you are going to beat the Patriots this year hasn't worked for any of the other teams, why is it going to work for the Giants. In fact, it seems to only tick the Patriots off. Good job Plaxico, you just about guaranteed yourself that Bill is going to have a game plan for shutting you down. Hope you didn't want a catch in the Super Bowl. Then he says that the Giants receivers are better than the Pats recievers. Sure, let's tick Moss, Welker, and Stallworth off too.
Speaking of people saying stupid things to the media. I got a chuckle out of an interview I heard a couple nights ago with Giants offensive lineman David Diehl. He said that he thought the Giants had a chance because no one is perfect and because this was not only the best team he'd ever been on, but the best one he'd ever seen. Maybe he sat out week 17 when the Patriots beat them? Oh, and the team you are playing, they are perfect so far.

Experience/Letdown factor
The Patriots have been here before. 4 out of the last 7 times. They know how to prepare for the game while being bombarded with interviews. They know how much slower the pace of the game will be compared to a regular season or even playoff game. They know what its like to have people think they have no chance (like the Giants) and how to overcome it and you know coach Bill will coach his team for how to prepare for that.
And the let down factor is that the Giants think they want to win, they think they can win. But deep down, they are happy to be there. No one expected them to be in the Super Bowl, no one will fault them if they lose. The let down factor comes into play with you get down by 14 early and you look up at that scoreboard and you know. That's game over.

Patriots offense vs. Giants defense
Sorry, Plaxico, but the Patriots haven't been held to 17 pts or less in a long time. And Coach Bill has only improved when playing a team a second time in the season. The Giants would have been better off forfeiting in Week 17 so the Pats couldn't see their plan for stopping them. Plus, this is what I've heard from Giants. They have a plan to shut down Moss, to shut down Welker, Faulk, and Stallworth. They have a plan to pressure Brady. They have a plan to stop Maroney. How many guys are they going to have on the field? Do they know they are only allowed 11?
They have a better chance at trying to keep them under 40 and they hoping they can find a way to score themselves, which brings us too...

Giants offense vs. Patriots defense
Now, I know Eli has played better in the playoffs, but he's going to have to get a lot better to beat this Patriots team. They've seem him already, and not too long ago. They know they need to get pressure on him and will find a way to do so. Belichick is a defensive genious, he's going to find ways to pressure Eli and keep him from even having the decent game that he had in Week 17. So, with Eli out of the picture, will the Giants be able to run enough on that Pats D-line and aging linebacker group to put up the kind of points to beat the Patriots? I have a tendency to think they will be fortunate to score over 24.

Overall
This Patriots team is one of the best teams ever assembled. What have the Giants done that would make anyone think that they have a chance? They played them close a couple weeks ago. That's what people are basing that on. Most major Vegas oddsmakers opened the line at around 14 pts, its still around 12. That's a lot of points. That means they are fairly confident in their pick. I won't dispute that it MIGHT be a close game, but look at the history of the Super Bowl. It normally isn't. This game is decided by the 3rd quarter and the 4th quarter merely decides the MVP.
I still just can't wrap my head around how so many people say this is one of the best teams in NFL history and then in the next breath say the Giants have chance to beat them.

Prediction:
Halftime: Patriots 21, Giants 10
Final: Patriots 38, Giants 24