Phil T Super Bowl preview

Here is my grand Super Bowl preview. Warning: It's lengthy and full of information. Everyone in the world gets to comment on the most over hyped football game in the world, so I thought I should be able to throw my two cents out there.
Besides, I had my annual, recurring nightmare that I missed the Super Bowl last night, so I figured I better get on it.
As most of you know (because you all read my NFL Playoff preview) I picked all 4 contestants of the Championship games correctly, but didn't correctly pick the winner of either game. Here's why:
NFC: Two reasons, I didn't know the weather would be that bad. I should have assumed that Chicago weather in January would be pretty cold, but I think it really affected the Saints in the second half. Also, I over estimated the 'Hurricane Effect'. I thought the Saints would really want to make it to the Super Bowl 'for the city', but it turns out, they were happy just to have made it that far.
AFC: The NFL is rigged. Peyton should not have won that game. Pure and simple, the NFL is rigged, that's why so many storylines like this happend, the NFL makes it so. They create their own storylines. It's just good business. (NASCAR is rigged too of course, I'm convinced. They've let it slip a few times recently with all the rules changes, but its been rigged for almost 10 years now, since the emergence of Jeff Gordon. I have a theory that Dale Earnhardt found out and that's why they "killed" him off the series [just like they do with actors] and that he's really still alive and living in a France under the alias Rico La'Racer and is not allowed to show his face in the South again. But that's a whole 'nother post) I should have seen that one coming, any other game Troy Brown runs out instead of in on that out route on 3rd and 4, 1st down Patriots, end of ball game. But no, Peyton, who shouldn't have even gotten another shot, gets the ball back and makes the easy score. The Patriots didn't even make it look difficult (which I think they were supposed to).

So, onto the Super Bowl. I can't really get a good feel for this game. Normally can't on Super Bowls anyway because they aren't normall football games. The pace is way off (it's a 4.5 hour game instead of a 3 hour game), it's over hyped, the fans are all corporate guys who have little or no vested interest in the teams are just happy to be there so the crowd isn't a factor for either team really. Haltime is too long and the players lose any momentum and essentially have to re-stretch and get warmed up again. My theory is that this is because the NFL knows so many non football fans are watching and they want plenty of time for extra replays and time for announcers to over explain everything in hopes of getting more fans. It's not going to work, because those non fans still think the game is too fast and most of them think they could never sit that long (4.5 hours) and watch a single game.

The pace really favors defensive teams as offensives can't get into their normal rythm and have zero tempo. If you look at the last 10 years of Super Bowls, the defensive teams have had far greater success that ones built for offense and we really haven't seen offenses dominate a Super Bowl since the Cowboy teams of the 90's. Denver was able to put a decent number of points on the board in the late 90's with Elway and Davis, but in my opinion that largely because the NFC teams they played were weaker teams. So, score one for the Bears.

AFC vs. NFC: Back in the day, it looked like the AFC would never win another Super Bowl. But now, they've won 5 of the last 7. Of the 50 games this season pitting AFC vs. NFC, the AFC won 32 of those (64%). Score one for the Colts.

The Peyton factor. I don't think Peyton has one the big one yet. So, he beat the Patriots. He hasn't won a Super Bowl yet. Dan Marino played in the Super Bowl as well, but lost. If Peyton is going to be the face of the NFL (arguably, he already is), he HAS to win this football game. Just making it to the Super Bowl is not winning it. If he loses, the talks will come back about how he can't win the big one. The monkey is still on his back, it just got smaller.

The letdown factor. Honestly, this affects both teams. I can see the Bears 'happy to be there' since even though they were winning all season, the talking heads still said they weren't very good and weren't a Super Bowl team. They proved them wrong, but could let that accomplishment be all they need and play that crappy 'happy to be there' football. [Like 1/4 the college bowl teams do]. But I can see the Colts falling for this trap too. They have been expected to be in the Super Bowl for about 6 seasons now and haven't. They are finally there, it would be easy for them to have that 'Whew, he finally made it' mindset. It wouldn't be the first time it happened, where a team basically had to make it back there in order to win it because just making it was just a sigh of relief the first time.

Overall: I think the Colts are a better team. However, when that offense doesn't click they are a different team and if the tempo of the game effects the offense, the Bears have a very real shot. Super Bowls have a tendency as well to be blowouts late in the game as one team pulls away, if the Colts click, even if for only a quarter, they can pull out enough of a lead to win going away. The Bears defense will have to play its best football in order for them to contend in this football game. The Bears have played primarily a Cover 2 defense all season, and haven't gotten much pressure on opposing quarterbacks with just their linebacker blitzes from the Cover 2. Against the Saints, they were able to get quite a bit of pressue on Drew Brees, and the Saints are similar to the Colts in that both teams kept their quarterback pretty clean and off the turf all season. The Bears will have to get pressure again this week against Peyton, as the Patriots have proved for years, the way to beat the Colts is to pressue Peyton, force him out of the pocket and to make quick decisions. That's how you beat the Colts. I think the Bears have the defense to do that. But let's go back to a point I made earlier. The NFL is rigged. If so, then they need Peyton to win to solidify him as the face of the League, as their star. Plus, they can have Vinatieri kick a FG late if needed and then he can seal a Super Bowl win for his once arch rival team. If this were a regular season game, the Bears win by 7. But it's not a regular season game, it's the Super Bowl. And despite the fact that I will be pulling for the Bears on Sunday, I think the Colts win. And I think they win by 17.

Colts 14, Bears 10 at the half. / Final score: Colts 34, Bears 17. Peyton is MVP.